Gulf Shores, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS64 KMOB 302332
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

After an interesting weather day with just enough shear and
instability combined with an outflow enhanced boundary along the
I-10 corridor to generate numerous showers and storms. Some of
those storms were able to rotate and now we transitioned to a
flooding threat as the lead shortwave providing the forcing moves
east of the area. Most of the area will remain dry tonight with
fog developing near the coast and offshore, some of which could
become dense. We will have to monitor fog development this
evening and overnight to see how far inland it can develop.

Attention then turns to the severe weather risk tomorrow. Showers
and storms are expected to ignite along a frontal boundary late
tonight across portions of the ArkLaTex and develop into a line
of thunderstorms that races southeast into our area Monday morning
and clears the area during the afternoon. SPC has extended the
Enhanced Risk southwest to cover almost the entire area for
tomorrow based on the potential for the line of storms to
strengthen as it moves into our area. The greatest risk will be
damaging winds along the QLCS with a few tornadoes possible in
lewps and bows. The CAM guidance is split on intensifying the line
or weakening it as it moves southeast. With the way we have been
worked over today, feel like the window for increasing instability
tomorrow morning will be brief. Therefore, we cannot discount the
weakening solution entirely.

The frontal boundary moves south of the area Monday night. The
front returns quickly northward as a warm front through midweek
ahead of another develop trough across the western states. A
developing upper level ridge across the western Atlantic and
Florida will keep conditions warm and dry through much of the
week. Rain chances return late in the period as another frontal
boundary approaches. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

An area of heavy rain moving slowly east over the I-10 corridor
and nearby will continue to bring local drops in VFR/MVFR
conditions to IFR/LIFR into the evening hours. Another round of
rain is expected to move over the forecast area after 09z/4am
Monday will bring another round of MVFR conditions dropping to
IFR/LIFR. With the heavy rain south from today will cause fog
development tonight, with drops to IFR/LIFR possible.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Light to moderate southerly tonight then southwesterly
on Monday. Winds become northerly Monday night as a cold front
moves through, then a light southeasterly flow returns on Tuesday.
The onshore flow becomes moderate to occasionally strong for
Wednesday and Thursday. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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